According to a new report by Intersect360 Research, the HPC industry will fall short of the 9.2% year-over-year revenue growth originally forecast for 2011. The primary causes for the revised expectations are the Eurozone crisis, which is causing a slowdown in government and academic spending in that region, and the Thailand flooding, which has caused a disruption in the supply chain for disk drives.
We don’t predict floods or major international macroeconomic shifts as part of our forecast methodology, but these do wind up having a real impact on the market,” said Addison Snell, CEO of Intersect360 Research. “In 2011 we saw enough market dampers that we are compelled to lower our year-end expectations.”
The reduction in growth is supported by Intersect360 Research survey data on end-user budget expectations, which are at the lowest levels in five years. Respondents in academia and government are projecting lower budget growth than in previous years.
Commercial markets worldwide so far appear to be stable, but the restricted spending in government and academia seems to have spread from the U.S. to Europe,” said Chris Willard, Chief Research Officer. “Asia will be an increasing percentage of the market in 2011 and 2012.”
In the report, Intersect360 Research emphasizes that its analysis is preliminary, pending further survey analysis and the release of vendors’ revenue numbers from the final calendar quarter. In early 2012 the company will release a complete year-end 2011 HPC total market model and updated five-year forecast through 2016.
Read the Executive Summary of this report.