In a paper published today in Nature Geoscience, scientists at the Met Office have demonstrated significant advances in predicting up to one year ahead the phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which drives European and North American winter variability. The NAO – a large-scale gradient in air pressure measured between low pressure around Iceland and high pressure around the Azores – is the primary driver of winter climate variability for Europe.
“PSyclone was developed for the UK Met Office and is now a part of the build system for Dynamo, the dynamical core currently in development for the Met Office’s ‘next generation’ weather and climate model software. By generating the complex code needed to make use of thousands of processors, PSyclone leaves the Met Office scientists free to concentrate on the science aspects of the model. This means that they will not have to change their code from something that works on a single processing unit (or core) to something that runs on many thousands of cores.”
Thomas Schulthess presented this talk at the MVAPICH User Group. “Implementation of exascale computing will be different in that application performance is supposed to play a central role in determining the system performance, rather than just considering floating point performance of the high-performance Linpack benchmark. This immediately raises the question as to what the yardstick will be, by which we measure progress towards exascale computing. I will discuss what type of performance improvements will be needed to reach kilometer-scale global climate and weather simulations. This challenge will probably require more than exascale performance.”
The Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University have launched a new website to track seasonal hurricane forecasts and the evolution of hurricane activity. The website shows the average number of hurricanes that are expected to affect the North Atlantic and those that have already occurred in the current season and the previous ones since 1966. A color code indicates the degree of activity forecast for the upcoming hurricane season.
In this video from PASC16, Peter Bauer from ECMWF shares his perspectives on the conference and his work with high performance computing for weather forecasting. “ECMWF specializes in global numerical weather prediction for the medium range (up to two weeks ahead). We also produce extended-range forecasts for up to a year ahead, with varying degrees of detail. We use advanced computer modeling techniques to analyze observations and predict future weather.”
In this video, Steven Pawson discussed how NASA uses computer models to build up a complete three-dimensional picture of El Niño in the ocean and atmosphere. Pawson is an atmospheric scientist and the chief of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
Beth Wingate from the University of Exeter presented this talk at the PASC16 conference in Switzerland. “For weather or climate models to achieve exascale performance on next-generation heterogeneous computer architectures they will be required to exploit on the order of million- or billion-way parallelism. This degree of parallelism far exceeds anything possible in today’s models even though they are highly optimized. In this talk I will discuss the mathematical issue that leads to the limitations in space- and time-parallelism for climate and weather prediction models – oscillatory stiffness in the PDE.”
“Weather prediction using high performance computing relies on having physically based models of the atmosphere that can deliver forecasts well in advance of the weather actually happening. ECMWF has embarked on a scalability program together with the NWP and climate modeling community in Europe. The talk will give an overview of the principles underlying numerical weather prediction as well as a description of the HPC related challenges that are facing the NWP and climate modeling communities today.”
Global efforts to bring about crucial improvements in supercomputing efficiency and energy usage were placed center stage this week as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) welcomed users and vendors from around the world to London for the Cray User Group 2016 conference.
In this video, technicians install a new supercomputer at UK Met Office. The Met Office is the National Weather Service for the UK, providing internationally-renowned weather and climate science and services to support the public, government and businesses.