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HPC Market Five-Year Forecast bumps up to $44 Billion Worldwide

Steve Conway and Earl Joseph of Hyperion Research

At ISC 2019 in Frankfurt, Hyperion Research announced it has increased its five-year HPC Market forecast to reach $44 billion in 2023, compared with the prior forecast of $39 billion (€35 billion) for that year.

In 2018, the HPC server market grew more than 15% to reach a record $13.7 billion (€12.2 billion) in revenue. The supercomputer segment (HPC systems sold for $500,000 or more) grew 23% to $5.4 billion in 2018, the highest growing competitive segment of the HPC market.

Highlights:

  • HPC Server Forecast. The new worldwide forecast projects that HPC server revenues alone will grow to $19.9 billion (€17.7 billion) in 2023, compared with a record $13.7 billion (€12.2 billion) in 2018. According to Hyperion Research CEO Dr. Earl Joseph, the 2023 figure includes $1.4 billion (€1.2 billion) for exascale supercomputers, $2.7 billion (€2.4 billion) for AI-dedicated HPC servers, and about $5.5 billion (€4.9 billion) in cloud usage fees. Joseph said AI will be the fastest-growing HPC segment for HPC, with a projected 30% CAGR during the 2018-23 period.
  • HPC Ecosystem Forecast. Also contributing to the 2023 overall forecast number are the following projected revenues: storage $7.8 billion (€6.9 billion); software $8.6 billion (€7.7 billion) and technical support $2.9 billion (€2.6 billion), he said.
  • Exascale Race. During the market briefing Hyperion Research also shared an estimated timeline out to the year 2025, including year by year spending, for the global exascale race. This timeline is based on public information as well as the collective research and experience of the Hyperion team. China may be the first to install an exascale system within the next 18 months, with the U.S. following soon afterward with the installation of Aurora supercomputer at Argonne National Laboratory. Between today and 2025, Hyperion Research estimates that global spending on pre- and full-exascale supercomputers will total about $9 billion, with the potential for the first $1 billion supercomputer ever, the Post-K machine at RIKEN.

During the briefing Hyperion Research presented its top predictions for the next year or so:

  • The exascale race will drive new technologies
  • The HPC-enterprise market convergence will drive HPC products into the broader enterprise market
  • Many new processors/accelerators are on the way
  • Storage systems will increasingly become more critical
  • Cloud computing for HPC workloads will grow fast, via tipping points
  • Artificial intelligence will grow faster than everything else

Growth in Cloud Computing

Hyperion Research also described its recently developed Public Cloud Market sizing for HPC from an end user spending perspective. The company believes that cloud use for HPC workloads is rounding a bend in the growth curve and will jump substantially in the next few years, especially due to the growth in hybrid cloud deployments.

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